Elliott Wave Analysis
Daily & Weekly XJO Updates
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Elliott Wave Analysis Daily & Weekly XJO Updates |
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29/06/07
Not a lot more development today - we're still holding above the green wave 4.
Expanding triangles can be hard to guess, so hopefully next week will provide some clues.
28/06/07
The inevitable bounce after a large decline today.
I waiting to see what happens rather than to try and guess the market.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070628.JPG
27/06/07
The XJO took a beating today and if prices fall below the currently labeled green wave '4?' it'll beg the question "is the high in place?".
A wave 5 high slightly lower than the wave 3, in the same pattern, is classed as 'a failure' and is a valid pattern.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070627.JPG
26/06/07
Marginally lower today. No real change, waiting for the next move.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070626.JPG
25/06/07
Today's pull back looks like it may be poised for another pusher higher.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070625.JPG
22/06/07
After dipping lower, we ended at the top of the daily range.
I'm thinking that we will see another all time high to hopefully finish this lingering wave 5 off for good.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070622.JPG
21/06/07
Nothing more to add today - I wouldn't be surprised if we break news highs.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070621.JPG
20/06/07
We moved back up to all time highs today.
Another slight alternate count, shown below, is that green wave 4 has developed into a 5 wave expanded triangle. If so, the pattern has finished wave 5 is well on the way.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070620.JPG
19/06/07
Further gains today. I'm waiting to see how this develops on the next pull back.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070619.JPG
18/06/07
The market moved convincingly higher today.
If new highs are made, I may have to re-think the count.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070618.JPG
15/06/07
The XJO rallied further today, but it's not looking impulsive on the intraday chart.
There will be CPI data announced in the US tonight, so that may give us the 'excuse' for wave 3 to head lower.
If we rally on Monday, it could be an irregular correction. The other alternative, which is getting less likely now given the current wave pattern, is that we'd be in for another push to new highs.
My bet is that the trend is/has changed - a good impulsive push lower will confirm this.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070615.JPG
14/06/07
We bounced today - not surprising since the last week has been mainly red.
The trend is looking very weak and another push lower back under the green wave 4 and Friday's low should confirm the trend has turned down.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070614.JPG
13/06/07
We moved lower today and whilst the futures haven't broken Monday's low, the cash has made a good start lower.
I've moved the wave labels about to indicate the likelihood of the high being in place, but the red ? will stay until a larger decline has taken place.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070613.JPG
12/06/07
We had a small bounce today and weakness into the close.
Things may be setting up for further falls.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070612.JPG
08/06/07
It looks like the trend has cracked today, but I'm not going to get too excited until there's some sort of confirmation.
We've dropped a fair few points this week, so expect a bounce.
Then, further weakness and an impulsive wave down would probably confirm that the tide has changed.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070608.JPG
07/06/07
We moved lower today, in line with US Markets, but managed to rally by the close.
We should be getting closer to a breakout, one way or another.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070607.JPG
06/06/07
A day for the bears.
We should hopefully know in the next few days whether the trend will break up or down.
If up, the market will be on it's last legs as the wave pattern completes.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070606.JPG
05/06/07
No new high today and if I put my bearish cap on, it looks like a triple top could be forming, unless we see a breakthrough to the upside in the next few days.
We're 90 days up from the March 6th, wave 4 low, so a time 'too look for a change in trend'.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070605.JPG
04/06/07
Today's gains put the bulls back on a firmer footing - new all-time highs seem to do this!
With some more follow through tomorrow, I too will feel more bullish.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070604.JPG
01/06/07
We saw prices nudge higher today, but nothing that inspires much confidence.
I'm still very cautious and am waiting for the next move to develop.
There's no point in guessing, let's see how things develop from here.
Link to Daily chart: charts/XJO_20070601.JPG
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and is not trading advice. These are personal views of the author. The reader should always seek professional advice to suit their personal circumstances.